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I’ve always been interested in gambling. My mom taught me to play blackjack and poker before I was 10 years old. I loved coming up with various schemes and strategies for winning at these games.

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Like most schemes from 10-year-olds, though, mine weren’t exactly grounded in math and science. They were just random approaches to playing games where I barely understood the math.

But most adults use equally absurd approaches to gambling—especially casino gambling—all the time.

And since gambling games are random, some of these absurd schemes work in the short term. In fact, if casino gamblers didn’t win occasionally in the short term, no one would play. The difference between the long-term expectation for these games and the short-term variance is the business model on which casinos rely to profit.

As I got older, I learned that some gambling schemes had a firm basis in mathematics and reality. These include counting cards in blackjack or playing expert poker.

Many more of these strategies are absurd and based on nothing more than fantasy and wishful thinking. This post covers those absurd, losing gambling schemes. My hope is that by helping you become better informed, I can help you avoid disappointment and financial ruin.

1- The Martingale System

One of the most popular betting systems in the casino is the Martingale system. It’s usually used on the even-money bets at the roulette wheel. And initially, at least, it seems foolproof.

You place a bet, and if you win, you pocket your winnings. If you lose, you place another bet, but you double the size of that bet. If you win the 2nd bet, you’ve won back your previous loss and have a one unit profit.

If you lose twice in a row, you double the size of your bet again. This time if you win, you’re still up one unit.

You bet $10 on black and lose. You then bet $20 on black and lose again. You place another bet, this time for $40, on black, and you win.

You lost a total of $30 on the 1st two bets, but when you won $40 on the 3rd bet, you recouped your losses and had a $10 profit to show for it.

The problem with the Martingale system is that it underestimates the likelihood of a long losing streak. If you keep doubling your bet sizes, you’ll eventually run into a bet that’s too big for your bankroll. Or you might need to place a bet that’s larger than the table limits.

Let’s assume you have a $500 bankroll. How many bets in a row would you need to lose to run out of money?

It’s not as many as you think:

1. $10
2. $20
3. $40
4. $80
5. $160
6. $320
7. $640

After 6 losses, you don’t have enough money left to cover the $640 bet that’s called for.

Even if you have a large enough bankroll to handle that, many roulette tables have a maximum bet of $500 or $1000.

That breaking point is the reason the Martingale system is a long term losing scheme.

You can win small amounts of money in the short term, but if you play with the system long enough, you’ll eventually run into a big enough losing streak to wipe out all your small winnings.

2- Money Management

As my dad used to say, there’s money management, and then there’s money management.

If you’re trying to manage your gambling bankroll sensibly, you’re just being sane and rational. That’s not a scheme.

This kind of money management refers to having a gambling bankroll that’s separate from all your other funds. It means not borrowing money to place bets. It means having enough funds to pay your bills even if you lose your entire gambling bankroll.

It also means you have enough money to get enough action at the tables or on the machines that you feel like you got your money’s worth in entertainment.

Money management becomes a gambling scheme when you start setting win goals and loss limits. The idea behind these arbitrary quitting points is that they can help you win money in the long run.

A win goal is an amount of money that, when won, signals the end of a gambling session.

A loss limit is the same thing, but it’s an amount of money that signifies the end of a gambling session when you’ve lost it.

There’s nothing wrong with setting win goals and loss limits, by the way. They can be a fun way of making sure you occasionally have a winning session.

This scheme becomes absurd when you rely on it to increase your chances of winning. The math behind probability doesn’t recognize multiple sessions. As far as the probability is concerned, your entire life is one long gambling session. Subdividing that one long gambling session into multiple shorter sessions does nothing to change the long-term expectation of the games.

And when we’re talking about casino games like blackjack, craps, roulette, slots, or video poker, we’re talking about games with a negative expected value. The casino has an absolute mathematical advantage.

You can’t overcome it in the long run by using short-term hit and run strategies. You can, however, book occasional winning sessions using these bankroll management techniques.

For most casino gamblers, an occasional winning session is the best you can hope for.

3- Predicting Winning and Losing Streaks

The nature of random events like spins of slot machine reels or outcomes on a pair of dice is that in the short run, you’ll see winning and losing streaks. In mathematical terms, this is called “variance.”

The problem with trying to rely on winning and losing streaks to inform your gambling sessions is that winning and losing streaks are only visible in retrospect. These streaks have no predictive value.

You’re playing roulette, and you’re betting on black. You’ve lost this bet 3 times in a row. (The ball landed on red 3 times.)

Red is on a winning streak. Black is on a losing streak. What is the probability that the ball will land on black on this 4th spin?

The calculation for this probability doesn’t change based on previous results. The roulette wheel still has 38 slots in it. 18 of them are still black, 18 of them are red, and 2 of them are green.

The probability of getting a black result on the next spin is 18/38, or 47.37%.

That probability doesn’t change based on what happened on the previous results.

People who use winning and losing streaks vary in terms of their approach to this situation. Some of them think you’re more likely to see red on the next spin because red’s hot. Some of them think you’re more likely to see black on the next spin because it’s unlikely to see a color win 4 times in a row.

Both these types of gamblers are wrong, though.

A spin of the roulette wheel is an “independent event.”

Thinking that previous results affect the probability of subsequent events even has a name in mathematical circles—it’s called “the Gambler’s Fallacy.”

Not all gambling games consist of independent events, though. In blackjack, once a card has been dealt, it’s gone until the next shuffle. This changes the probability on subsequent hands. This is one reason you can get an edge at blackjack—the changing nature of the deck means that the odds will be in your favor at least some of the time.

But blackjack is the exception, not the rule. And thinking of it in terms of winning and losing streaks is an oversimplification.

4- Playing the Lottery

I have a friend who has played the lottery in Texas every week since the game began here in 1992. He insists that he’s a “break-even” player. This might be true, but if you knew this guy, you’d know how unlikely it is that he’s kept any kind of dependable records.

The truth of the matter is that we know what the payback percentage for the lottery is—it’s between 50% and 70%. This means that the lottery pays out an average of 50 cents to 70 cents for every dollar you spend over the long run.

In the short term, of course you might see break-even results. You might even get lucky and show a short term profit

But the nature of probability is that in the long run, the actual results start to resemble the predicted results. The longer the sample size runs, the more likely it is that you’ll see results similar to the expected results.

Let’s assume my friend spends $10 a week on lottery tickets of various kinds. Let’s also assume that he takes 2 weeks a year off for vacation or whatever. That’s $500/year spent on lottery tickets.

Assuming he wins back 70% of that, he has a win of $350 for the year, so he’s got a net loss of $150.

Since he’s been playing since 1992, he’s lost $150 X 26, or $3900.

If you assume a 50% payback percentage, then he’s lost $250 per year for 26 years, or $6500.

That’s not a lot of money over a 26 year period, granted. And gambling is best looked at as an entertainment expense.

I can think of all kinds of entertaining things I can see or do for $6500. In fact, most gambling games I can think of cost less than this and are more entertaining at the same time.

But if you’re looking for a gambling scheme that’s going to change your life, the lottery is probably your worst option, mathematically.

5- Playing Slot Machines

The slots generate at least 75% of most casinos’ revenue these days. Table games like blackjack, craps, and roulette are little more than a side note at modern casinos. You can point to multiple reasons the slots generate so much money for the casino. All those reasons are bad for the average gambler.

The first reason is that most people play the slot machines fast. A rough average number of bets per hour for a slots player is 600 spins per hour, but it can vary from as few as 200 spins per hour or as many as 900 spins per hour.

Ridiculous Gambling Advice

With any negative expectation bet, the more bets you make, the faster you can expect to lose your money. Think of the house’s mathematical advantage as a tax that’s applied to every bet you make, and you won’t be doing too bad in terms of estimating how much money a player’s going to lose.

Take into account the next reason slot machines are so profitable for the casino—their relatively high house edge. Most slot machines have a house edge in the 8% range, but that can vary. Some slot machines might have a house edge as high as 25%. That’s not as bad as the lottery, but it’s a far cry from the 1% or so you’ll find at some of the better table games.

If you’re putting $3000 per hour into action and losing 8% of that, you’re looking at a predicted loss of $240 per hour. That’s a lot of money to spend on entertainment.

Another reason slot machines are so profitable for the casino relates to the addictive nature of the machines. Scientific studies have demonstrated repeatedly that intermittent rewards are a more effective psychological motivator than consistent rewards.

Can you think of a better description for a slot machine than “an intermittent reward machine?”

Playing the slot machines is a sure way of losing your money in the long run. All you need is time and dedication.

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6- Overestimating Your Skill Level

Some gambling games have a skill element. These games include blackjack and poker. Other gambling activities, like betting on horse races and sporting events, also involve skill.

Most gamblers underestimate how much skill it takes to be consistently profitable at these advantage gambling techniques.

Take blackjack, for example. Most casinos don’t worry much about card counters, especially card counters who are playing for lower stakes. The reason they don’t worry much about them is because most card counters aren’t good enough at counting cards or even basic strategy to get an actual mathematical edge over the casino.

Detailed record-keeping can help you get an idea if your actual results support the proposition that you’re a skilled blackjack player.

Most poker players think they’re a lot better at poker than they are. This is another example of a gambling game where it’s easy to underestimate how much skill you need to profit. If you’re playing poker in any kind of professional setting, like a cardroom in a casino, you have to not only be good enough to beat the other players, but also good enough to overcome the rake.

When a casino offers a poker game, they take a percentage of each pot to pay for hosting the game. This is usually 5% with a dollar max per pot.

But with the rake in place, if you were just as skilled as the other players, you’d lose money in the long run to the rake.

If you’re only 2% or 3% better than the other players at the table, you’re still going to be a net loser over time because of the rake.

Most gamblers don’t have the discipline or foresight to keep detailed records of their results when gambling.

7- Relying on Hunches

The biggest sin a gambler can commit is to rely on hunches instead of on math. Hunches don’t hurt when you’re playing a game like roulette, where you can’t possibly get an edge. But if you’re silly enough to think that your instincts or psychic abilities warrant a deviation from blackjack strategy, you’re in trouble.

Hunches can seem profitable for the same reason casino games might seem easy to beat in the short term. Standard deviation guarantees that some of the time you’ll win even when you’ve made the wrong decision. It’s easy to remember those wins and use them as evidence that your hunches are worthwhile.

I have a friend who’s a psychic. He told me has an 87.5% success rate at contacting the dead. I’ve often wondered why he doesn’t use his psychic abilities to get rich gambling.

Just kidding.

I’ve never really wondered that, because I know that hunches and guesswork don’t help gamblers win money in the long run.

8- Cheating in a Casino

I can’t get into all the different ways you could cheat in a casino, but I’ll write a little bit about the most common means of cheating—past posting.

This means you adjust the size of your bet after the results of that bet become clear.

If you have a bet placed at a roulette game on black, and you’re fast, you might be able to increase the size of your bet on black when the dealer isn’t looking.

Here’s the problem with that:

The croupier is watching. And even when he’s not watching, the eye in the sky is watching.

In Nevada, cheating at a casino is a felony. This means you face serious jail-time possibly, and even if you don’t, you’ll get plenty of time on probation.

You’re not going to win enough money cheating at casino games to warrant the risk. It’s just not going to happen.

I’d rather see you play the lottery.

9- Ignoring Basic Strategy in Blackjack

I talked about this briefly in the section about relying on hunches. There’s one and only one correct mathematical play in every blackjack situation. That’s determined by basic strategy.

Deviating from basic strategy might seem like a good idea because you’ll occasionally get a hunch right. That doesn’t mean it was the right decision in the long run. In fact, the more often you deviate from basic strategy, the more money you’ll lose in the long run.

Smart gambling strategy is based on taking advantage of small edges over long periods of time. Any time you choose between decisions, you should focus on choosing the decision that makes the most sense mathematically in the long run.

Basic strategy is nothing more than a list that takes into account every possible situation in blackjack and advises you about what the mathematically best move to make in each of those situations.

In some blackjack situations, all the possible plays are negative expectation plays. You choose the one with the lowest negative expectation.

Casinos love players who deviate from basic strategy, by the way. The average blackjack player loses 4% to 5% over time based on her deviations from basic strategy.

Be the smart player who uses basic strategy for every decision. Over time, you’ll save lots of money on that additional 3% to 4% you save.

10- Taking Advantage of Online Casino Bonuses

It’s easy to see why you’d think getting a 100% or 200% matching bonus at an online casino is a sure way to make money. After all, it’s just free money in your account.

The problem is that most players don’t take into account the wagering requirements. You must gamble all your deposit plus your bonus a specific number of times before cashing out. And they require you to gamble it on the games with the highest house edge—the slot machines.

The expected value of all these bonuses is 0, so you don’t really lose anything, unless…

Unless you deposit more money and gamble more than you would have if the bonus weren’t available.

And unfortunately, that’s what most gamblers do when they get excited about a casino bonus. They gamble more than they meant to.

It’s fine to take advantage of casino bonuses, but read the terms and conditions first, and think of the implications of those terms and conditions

You’ll be less likely to deposit more than you should if you do.

Conclusion

Yes, you can find and implement gambling strategies which can help you become a net winner over time.

But most gambling schemes have the opposite of the desired effect. Not only will you lose money with these schemes, you’ll often lose more money than you would have if you’d just played for pure entertainment value.

Most people aren’t cut out for the life of an advantage gambler. There’s no shame in that.

But accept where you fall on the spectrum and act accordingly. It’s okay to be a recreational gambler. The trick is to accept the cost of that identity and manage your risk accordingly.

By CCN.com: 2K Sports has unveiled a new trailer for basketball game NBA 2K20’s revamped card-based MyTeam mode and it is as ridiculous as it is head-ache inducing gambling spot.

The fast-paced scene jumps, the explosive colors that would be more at home in a kid’s TV show, and the countless mini-games befitting a mobile game rather than a fully-fledged triple-A sports title are just scratching the surface.

Welcome To 2K’s Gambling Simulator

Underneath all the bravado of NBA stars feigning palpable enjoyment, there’s a veiled gambling eco-system that might very well rival EA’s aggressive monetization at its peak.

With 2K’s use of clear-cut gambling references such as the use of terms like jackpot alongside visual representations of playing chips, slot machines, and an approximation of a roulette wheel, the video is a bit like stepping into a demented virtual dive bar come casino. Then, there’s a vertical ball drop mini-game which would be right at home in an arcade.

It’s a confusing mix that begs the question of who exactly is 2K targeting with this ostensibly improved MyTeam mode that looks uncannily akin to last year’s iteration. The randomized card packs are eerily similar to Pokemon cards down to foil wraps, and the neon hues present in every UI interface wouldn’t exactly appeal to anyone with a shred of taste over the age of ten.

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Isn’t NBA 2K20 A Basketball Game?

Aside from the ethical quagmire of promoting gambling to children, 2K has nailed the aesthetic – we’ll give the developer that. The casino vibe is so aggressively pushed that it’s genuinely hard to see how basketball weaves itself into this sensory overloading mess.

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The worst part has got to be how 2K appears to dangle cards stamped with the names of the NBA’s most iconic personalities to lure players into spending even more money to be in with a randomized, highly unlikely chance of bagging them. The video doesn’t even try to disguise this as landing the coveted LeBron James card results in cries of unadulterated joy.

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The fact an E ESRB rating (as in E for everyone – suitable for all ages) is emblazoned into the bottom right-hand corner for the first five seconds of the video has got to be the cherry on top though.

If the FTC comes a-knocking at 2K’s door before long, we wouldn’t surprise us.